April 2020 was a very tough month for matched betting. Almost all sport and horse racing around the world had stopped due to coronavirus. This left very little opportunities to matched bet. At this time, I decided to focus more on casino offers, both the sign-up and reload available offers. The concept of casino offers is similar to matched betting in that you use mathematical calculations to judge if an offer should yield a profit on average. Outplayed, which I used for my matched betting, had just created a sister site called Bonus Accumulator, which is focused solely on casino offers. So I signed up there and gave it a try.
Unlike matched betting, casino offers are not all entirely risk-free. Some do bring significant risk. However, if you stick with the offers you are comfortable doing and simply keep on doing them, trusting the maths, you will continue on an upward trend of profit. It may sometimes feel after doing two or three casino offers and ending up down to £30 that you had better stop. But trust in the maths, keep on going, and you should find that the profits will come. For example, you end up with £30 down after the first few offers, but you end up £60 in profit from the fourth offer. By the end of the month, you can track the results and see that you are always going in a steady upward trend of profit. Bonus Accumulator works out which offers will give you a positive ‘Expected Value’. They also provide a spreadsheet with a graph so you can track this, which is really useful.
![Expected Value Vs Profit/Loss Graph April 2020 [Matched Betting] showing profit trending above the expected value in the long term](https://i0.wp.com/thematchedbettingblog.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Expected-Value.png?resize=1024%2C430)
As you can see above, the blue line is my expected value (profit) from each offer I have completed. The orange line is my actual profit. As you can see early on, I took a significant hike in the right direction with my profit line. I was completing a casino reload offer with an expected value of £1 profit, and I hit a £298.02 WIN out of the blue! This can happen at any time when you keep doing casino offers. So the advice is to keep on going with the right offers, and even if you take a few loses here and there along the way, your graph should look like this over time.
Summary
So April was saved thanks to casino offers, as you will see in my results above. It was a big shift from the previous month when most of my profit was from matched betting, which had all but stopped by April time. Still, I managed to chase down some profit with William Hill £10 cash refund if your horse finishes 2nd. This was because some obscure horse racing was still running in the US and parts of Asia, and William Hill were at this time running the refund offer pretty much every day on two different meetings. It was hard to get close matches, and working with the Betdaq exchange can be troublesome, especially with markets that don’t have a lot of money in them. But the overall efforts paid off in the end with a £913.74 profit despite a very challenging moth with limited opportunities around.
Highlights from April
- The casino offers and reloads, and that one big win! In April, it’s clear that the casino offers were a real lifeline in what would have otherwise been a pretty poor month with hardly anything to bet on with the matched betting. I did get a little lucky with the big win, but if you keep churning out casino offers, eventually, you will hit something big. The biggest advice on this is don’t look at a few offers going bad in isolation; this will happen. Keep going and look at the results over the course of a week or a month to see the upward trend. It will come.
- William Hill £10 cash refund if your horse finishes 2nd. This offer ran all the way through April daily. It was a real godsend and offered some small opportunities for matched betting profit. It’s a really simple offer to do too. Just pick a horse 4.0 odds or higher and bet £10. Ensure that it is a close match in the exchange and lay it, then watch and hope it comes in 2nd. No need to place a free bet; this is £10 cashback in your pocket straight off.
Check out my review of Outplayed or to give matched betting a try head over for the free trial.